Secured Funding

Dear all,

I've once written a blog on this pair, about the peg Everything You Need to Know About Peg on EUR/CZK and How to Trade it Afterwards.

We are back above 27 czech crowns per euro and so I think this pair deserves an attention of forexmospherians again.

Few words about current development. The reason why Czech National Bank (CNB) set a peg on 27.00 like 5 years ago were the deflationary tendencies which are thought to be harmful for the economy. The level of a "healthy" inflation was reached through this monetary channel and the peg was left. Why it is on my spotlight - here are several scenarios which can influence the exhcange rate of this currency pair in the near future:

  1. The level of inflation will keep rising, an action by the CNB will be required to make the crown a bit stronger and thus avoid the "unhealthy" levels of inflation.
  2. The situation in the eurozone will sharpen, the Italy and other countries will be calling for their exits to leave eurozone. This will cause turbulences in the FX market. One might think, this will weaken the euro and thus this pair will continue moving downwards (relatively stronger czech crown). However, this view is not correct. First of all, the czech currency is weak in terms of that investors and speculators do not want to hold this currency during any period of market turbulences (see the huge upside move due to COVID-19 market uncertainty), this implies even weaker czech crown -> thus a move upside. Furthermore, Italy leaving eurozone would imply relatively stronger euro because the stronger economies will be left in the eurozone area.

One situation above implies to go LONG and the other one to go SHORT this pair. Pick one, which you like, or come up with your own and trade it along the way.

In my shorter term view, the technical analysis implies SHORT EUR/CZK. Daily chart -> double top, but keep in mind the 27.00000 level, which plays the most crucial role here.


Votes: 0
E-mail me when people leave their comments –

Daniel Stasziek - trading since 2009. If you want to start trading, I suggest you follow the general advice: "run very quickly, the other way."


  • Bounced from 27, as I said, very crucial level on this pair=))


  • Just to briefly mention, this pair is trading under 27 which for me means taking short from the upper resistance levels. However, keep in mind if any market turbulences occured, this pair will fly high up.

This reply was deleted.

You need to be a member of Forexmospherians - Forex Traders Social Network to add comments!

Join Forexmospherians - Forex Traders Social Network

Helpful Hints

Share a Trading Tip, Trick, Knowledge or Technique with the Community. Try to avoid just simply posting a link or video and saying this is great. Explain what makes it great or how this was useful. Sometimes things are simply entertaining but still useful and so explain in detail with diagrams, photos or charts. Descriptions with as many details are always interesting to read and so say what could be useful to know here. Community members are welcome to comment, ask questions or add to a post.

"Keep a Record of the Business or Currency Pair Traded. Reasons why the Trade was taken. When was the Exit. How and why the Trade turned out the way it did"

"It's my pleasure to be part of this forum, which is always different than other places & with a friendly environment. Glad to be in this team"

"Yes, the truth requires neither our belief nor understanding. However to harness truth and apply it for our benefit we must at a minimum allow that it is possible".

"We all know we will never be 100% Accurate with 100% win rate over 100's or 1000's of trades - but as long as your winning pips and money - add up to a lot more than your losing pips and money - then "Bingo" you are successful winning FX trader"

"I figured this was a legitimate break, so I went on the hunt for evidence, so here in succession is the list of clues I used to make my decision:

Rejection of market and weekly pivot at ema confluence.

Complete and broken head and shoulders on 1hr time frame.

Broadening formation on daily with test and rejection of 200 day ma

Bull hinge on daily and Renko stochastic.

Positive momentum on 5min, 1hr, 4hr and daily chart"

"Remember that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful" - George E. P. Box

"Sometimes You Win,

Sometimes you Learn".

"Forex Market analysis relies on two types of analysis much like Stock Markets:

Technical Forex Market Analysis views the data on a chart and considers that the News and Data is built into the Price already (economic, political, social, sentimental and psychological). Various tools and indicators will be used by technical traders, for instance MACD, Bollinger Bands, Moving Averages and more.

Fundamental Forex Market Analysis also uses indicators, for instance reports, Gross Domestic Production (GDP), Retail sales, Consumer spending, Industrial Production, Consumer Price Index, Commodities, Economic Calendars, Balance of Trade levels which could identify Trends between other Nations and more."

"Short rapid bursts and quick glimpses of an entry, trigger activated, trail in place and exit strategy and plan already set. Within a blink of an eye, instinctively the buy/sell button is pushed. The hammer falls and clanks decisively, echoing, sparking, like steel upon steel and the trade is executed. A Traders heart beats on with perfect set up, closely aligned with strict parameters, ready to continue the attack or recoil on a wire. Wrap the profit and then stand down, ready for the next hunt"

"When we are talking about sentiment it is very hard to say that this sentiment will prevail another 6, 9, 13 hours. Sentiment is not a constant line. Main trend is bearish, tech picture on daily is bearish, even intraday neutral. Nobody restrict to play long eur short usd position with the target at 1.12 or even 1.1361, this is every traders individual choice as always"

Latest Activity

longle4395 commented on david william's blog post EUR / USD can rise more
Dec 21, 2020
longle4395 commented on Daniel Stasziek's blog post Daniel's FX Trading
Dec 18, 2020
Sir Gissachance commented on Sir Gissachance's blog post A New Forex Trader | "I'm Like a Dog Chasing Cars"
Dec 18, 2020
Sir Gissachance posted a video
Dec 18, 2020
longle4395 commented on Sir Gissachance's blog post A New Forex Trader | "I'm Like a Dog Chasing Cars"
Dec 17, 2020
longle4395 is now a member of Forexmospherians - Forex Traders Social Network
Dec 16, 2020
david william posted a blog post
Dec 7, 2020
david william is now a member of Forexmospherians - Forex Traders Social Network
Dec 7, 2020
Aleksey Novikov is now a member of Forexmospherians - Forex Traders Social Network
Aug 12, 2020
Sir Gissachance commented on Viktor's blog post GOLD first drop then sky high
Aug 4, 2020
Daniel Stasziek commented on Daniel Stasziek's blog post EUR/CZK - the ultimate view on this currency pair
Jul 4, 2020
Genxtrader posted a status
Revisiting Crystal Ball, it is quite astounding.
Jun 6, 2020