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FXCoalface (7)

A guy I knew a few years ago could ride a unicycle whilst juggling 6 oranges . He said it was easy - although he admitted he had been riding unicyles for many years from when he was a teenager.

I tried it in 2 stages - first of all trying to ride a unicycle - that was very difficult and although I did manage to stay on a few times - I could not even juggle 2 oranges at the same time - even though I could juggle 4 or more when I was just focusing and concentrating on just that part and not trying to unicycle.

I tried to do it many times over several weeks - but felt not confident after a few falls - so it beat me 

It reminds me of FX trading - yes so many say its just so simple - you buy when…

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At the Start of this Millennium, Currency Trading  / FX / Forex was been sold to potential newbie traders as one of the best ways to make your millions from just a small capital base and a few hours of work a week. We had all heard about all the money Hedge Fund and Bank Traders had been making during the 80's and 90's and now with the availability of the world wide web and access to the markets - it was time to get involved.

All you had to do was spend a few weeks or months learning how to trade - and of course it looks easy - just follow the news and work out whats happening on the charts and then buy and sell different currency pairs and then bank your profits - etc etc

If you were all ready employed and so only had a few hours a week to trade that would not matter as you could become…

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I am sure many of you have heard the phrase or saying - there is no need to take any courses - everything you need to learn to become a successful FX Trader you can learn for FREE off the Internet.

In a "nutshell" - it could be looked upon as being true - the trouble is though - you are going to end up kissing a lot of frogs before you end up meeting your prince or princess ;-)

Nobody really wants to waste money on their learning journey - but unfortunately it happens to so many newbie traders. They either go to a free seminar and then end up spending $2k or $5K plus on a 2 to 5 day "intense special" seminar that will have them profitable ( not). Or - they spend $300 on buying DVD's and loads of books that they then think will have them at an intermediate…

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FX Retail Traders - 2016

 % Breakdown  of those who make it and those who don’t

Estimated % of Winners –

Minimum consistent winners who manage to make profits both monthly and yearly  -

3 -5% -  (Independent estimates)

Maximum number of consistent retail winners who make profits monthly ongoing -

22 – 28% -  (Broker / trade estimates )

My own personal view based on other independent statistics and spreadbetting stats –

11 – 15% of all retail FX Traders may be profitable on a consistent basis

Why do so many traders – ie estimates from  72 to 97% of retail traders never make trading profits on a consistent basis ongoing over months – quarters and yearly ?

Out of…

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I was going to be writing on another subject for Part three - but I decided to change it after reading some comments on different forums over the weekend and thinking - Why are some traders missing the obvious ?

Here's a few questions to ask yourself -

1. Can you drive a car and do you hold a full driving licence ? If so - was you a good driver after your first week or first 50 miles ? Was you more experienced after say 5 years and 50k+ miles under your belt? Was you a better driver after drivings say 5 different cars in different parts of the country or even abroad ??

2. Have you ever decided to accomplish a new skill - ie skiing or snowboarding - go karting - sailing - ten pin bowling etc ? Have you noticed you started to improve after time ? It might be after a few…

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We mentioned in part one about the Forex Market really being a "zero - sum" game - that's after the "trade" - ie Brokers / commercial agents etc have had their "spreads and commissions" off traders participating in the market place.

We also mention the "them and us" - IE commercial institutions / Banks / Governments / Hedge Funds etc - being them and us - being the "poor little relative" - ie the Retail Trader - working for ourselves and trying to make a profitable return from our Capital and our commitment from the amount of effort and time and study we do to try and be consistently profitable.

Now immediately can you all see the "conflict" here - Banks and Hedge Funds need to make large amounts of money simple down to the amount of capital and resources they invest in the currency…

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Currency Trading is just really the largest "money game" on the Planet - played by loads of all different people and organisations around the World.

We have really 2 main sections - you could say "them and us" - with us being part of the retail section or community - ie individuals - not working for Banks or Hedge Funds, commercial organisations etc - but instead just for ourselves. "We" only account for approximately 5 to 8% of the total FX market  - whereas just 5 very large banks account for anything between 55 and 70%. 

That leaves something like 22 to 30+% of the market being made up of loads of commercial businesses and even governments etc - not just Hedge Funds or small Banks - but even car manufacturers and massive international global businesses who are trading in anything up to 200+…

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Helpful Hints

Share a Trading Tip, Trick, Knowledge or Technique with the Community. Try to avoid just simply posting a link or video and saying this is great. Explain what makes it great or how this was useful. Sometimes things are simply entertaining but still useful and so explain in detail with diagrams, photos or charts. Descriptions with as many details are always interesting to read and so say what could be useful to know here. Community members are welcome to comment, ask questions or add to a post.

"Keep a Record of the Business or Currency Pair Traded. Reasons why the Trade was taken. When was the Exit. How and why the Trade turned out the way it did"

"It's my pleasure to be part of this forum, which is always different than other places & with a friendly environment. Glad to be in this team"

"Yes, the truth requires neither our belief nor understanding. However to harness truth and apply it for our benefit we must at a minimum allow that it is possible".

"We all know we will never be 100% Accurate with 100% win rate over 100's or 1000's of trades - but as long as your winning pips and money - add up to a lot more than your losing pips and money - then "Bingo" you are successful winning FX trader"

"I figured this was a legitimate break, so I went on the hunt for evidence, so here in succession is the list of clues I used to make my decision:

Rejection of market and weekly pivot at ema confluence.

Complete and broken head and shoulders on 1hr time frame.

Broadening formation on daily with test and rejection of 200 day ma

Bull hinge on daily and Renko stochastic.

Positive momentum on 5min, 1hr, 4hr and daily chart"

"Remember that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful" - George E. P. Box

"Sometimes You Win,

Sometimes you Learn".

"Forex Market analysis relies on two types of analysis much like Stock Markets:

Technical Forex Market Analysis views the data on a chart and considers that the News and Data is built into the Price already (economic, political, social, sentimental and psychological). Various tools and indicators will be used by technical traders, for instance MACD, Bollinger Bands, Moving Averages and more.

Fundamental Forex Market Analysis also uses indicators, for instance reports, Gross Domestic Production (GDP), Retail sales, Consumer spending, Industrial Production, Consumer Price Index, Commodities, Economic Calendars, Balance of Trade levels which could identify Trends between other Nations and more."

"Short rapid bursts and quick glimpses of an entry, trigger activated, trail in place and exit strategy and plan already set. Within a blink of an eye, instinctively the buy/sell button is pushed. The hammer falls and clanks decisively, echoing, sparking, like steel upon steel and the trade is executed. A Traders heart beats on with perfect set up, closely aligned with strict parameters, ready to continue the attack or recoil on a wire. Wrap the profit and then stand down, ready for the next hunt"

"When we are talking about sentiment it is very hard to say that this sentiment will prevail another 6, 9, 13 hours. Sentiment is not a constant line. Main trend is bearish, tech picture on daily is bearish, even intraday neutral. Nobody restrict to play long eur short usd position with the target at 1.12 or even 1.1361, this is every traders individual choice as always"