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Daniel's FX Trading

There is probably an issue with photo posts as they do not display in activity feed, so I will use this blog for that purpose ;)

I entered two trades today on GBPCAD and AUDCAD. The plan was to cover some previous days loosing trades and so I cashed in too early.

GBPCAD - long

 

AUDCAD - long

If you want to know more about the strategy used, you have to sign in and talk to any…

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The Difference

I have recently been helping a friend with his market outlook and approach, i have only helped a small few as we all know there are many factors in this game, and when one learns that simplicity is the route to succes it becomes much easier.

When giving guidance in the form of answering good questions with really good answers i have come to realise, it still is difficult in the beginning stages for new people in the markets to grasp the difference between a security and the market, reading up on a company, currency pair, bond etc, etc, is what some people in the new stages think is imperative to succesful trading but they couldn't be more wrong in my opinion. I'm certanly not implying to ignore a securities fundies, however i can tell a lot more about what a security is doing by reading the chart as opposed to reading what the talking heads are saying.

It is very important to know whats coming around the bend for sure, you can get blind sided from a critical…

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A New Forex Trader - "I'm Like a Dog Chasing Cars"
What would a dog do if it actually caught a car? Lets paws for thought for a few moments and then look into this a little deeper and gain some understanding of how this can perhaps be cured in a Forex Trader or avoided altogether. Forex Traders are naturally wired to chase moving objects like price action and attempt virtually every pip throughout the trading session. Mainly due to lack off knowledge, training, experience and patience which as we know, are absolutely necessary to trade the markets successfully. When a trader repeatedly…

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Technical Analysis Forex Trade EURUSD 1,370 Pip Long

Using Forex Chart Patterns and other Forexmospherian Trading Techniques like JBCB, CBA and FPA

Technical Analysis M5 latest Entry Descending Triangle Breakout Trade below

M15 Entry 11th Jan 2018 Descending Triangle Breakout Trade

Current D1 Breaks Bull Flag with MC and the chance to Long…

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Trading in a place called ForexLand

Trading in a place called ForexLand

The Rabbit hole of thinking and raising Trading awareness with Market savvy can be explained away in a wide range of intricate FX scenarios. Luckily though and just a short hop away are some interesting Forex facts along with a short punchy story to share. Which should not go beyond the scope of reasonable thinking for some FX folk. After all, other folk can and will make life and Foreign Exchange trading as technical and or as complicated as they like.

If you consider that…

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Image result for BIG BANKS

First of all I would like to recommend a great document out there - "DB Guide to Exchange-Rate Determination" which was written by Deutsche Bank in 2002 and is overfilled with FX rate determination, forecasting methods which can be used for all short term, mid-term and long term trading. If you haven't read it, look for it, download to your Kindle and take the time. It is worth reviewing. :)

In the documents several FX trading strategies are described with reference to many academical papers and literature. One of them - the Forward-Rate Bias strategy. Its results are stunning for longer term FX trading and its sharp ratio has beaten the S&P500 twice. As the DB says: "This is the bedrock of Deustche Banks's Forward-Rate Bias trading system".…

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Dead Cat Bounce in Forex Markets (Thats it)

Dead Cat Bounce.

A popular Forex trading term appropriate to many Financial instruments. This well known phrase is said to originate from Wall Street within the financial markets. The "dead cat bounce" means a brief and small recovery in the price action of a declining FX market. The basic idea is that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height. Also applied to Foreign Exchange  Markets where the currency pair encounters a brief resurgence during or following a severe decline. 
A good Forex strategy to counter the Dead Cat Bounce is MTFA.…
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EURUSD Overview and Observation of Forex Price Action in the current Market.

How to identify Live Forex Chart Patterns and Market Direction - Tip: Patterns Tend to be true.

Price Action Data Translation of the Line. The life cycle of this Currency Pair set out in stages as above so below:

M15 The following information is highlighted in the Chart above and in…

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The 6 Most Traded Forex Currencies in the World

Trillions of dollars can be traded on any given day between millions of investors and interested parties which makes the forex market the most liquid market by far and thus securing it to be the largest market place in the World. So, for the beginner and those researching the forex markets for the first time, then it is imperative to gain a firm grasp and familiarize themselves with the more commonly traded currencies and Forex pairs, along with their nicknames as well as the more popular known uses, not just within Forex but also their wider use on the worldwide financial stage. Every currency can be affected by its own specific characteristics and these features will affect its underlying…

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The idea of Trading a single Forex Time Frame can be effective while analysing one chart but there are some alternatives which may reveal a more in-depth and thorough understanding of Forex market analysis for all currency pairs. A wider perspective can be gained from taking advantage of the different and wider angles involved. In essence, entering a Forex trade could be comparable to…

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A guy I knew a few years ago could ride a unicycle whilst juggling 6 oranges . He said it was easy - although he admitted he had been riding unicyles for many years from when he was a teenager.

I tried it in 2 stages - first of all trying to ride a unicycle - that was very difficult and although I did manage to stay on a few times - I could not even juggle 2 oranges at the same time - even though I could juggle 4 or more when I was just focusing and concentrating on just that part and not trying to unicycle.

I tried to do it many times over several weeks - but felt not confident after a few falls - so it beat me 

It reminds…

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Day Trading Forex and the Top 10 Forex Beginners Trading Tips.

The standard use of the term "Day Trading" refers to short term market positions where the trader opens and closes a position within the same day. Rather unfortunately, this term along with the original concept received bad press in the 1990's when it earned the reputation of liquidating many beginners Trading accounts. However, the fact remains that no one whether beginner or seasoned trader, should simply jump into the markets without thoroughly testing their…

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If you send out one sonar ping or drop a rock in a pond the first ripples are fast precise , edges clearly defined sharp in and out. As the ripples or waves expand they become wider slower less precise and mere reflections of the original price action. To explain how those edges that you so casually define, use, move on to the next , like chaff from your harvest are so helpful to me I must share something that may or may not be helpful to you.

As I realize waiting hours for 100 Forex pips is not really that appealing to Traders who glean that from the market in minutes working from the center of the ripples. In the asia…

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At the Start of this Millennium, Currency Trading  / FX / Forex was been sold to potential newbie traders as one of the best ways to make your millions from just a small capital base and a few hours of work a week. We had all heard about all the money Hedge Fund and Bank Traders had been making during the 80's and 90's and now with the availability of the world wide web and access to the markets - it was time to get involved.

All you had to do was spend a few weeks or months learning how to trade - and of course it looks easy - just follow the news and work out whats happening on the charts and then buy and sell different currency pairs and then bank your profits - etc etc

If you were all ready employed and so only had a few hours a week to trade that would not matter as you could become a…

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I am sure many of you have heard the phrase or saying - there is no need to take any courses - everything you need to learn to become a successful FX Trader you can learn for FREE off the Internet.

In a "nutshell" - it could be looked upon as being true - the trouble is though - you are going to end up kissing a lot of frogs before you end up meeting your prince or princess ;-)

Nobody really wants to waste money on their learning journey - but unfortunately it happens to so many newbie traders. They either go to a free seminar and then end up spending $2k or $5K plus on a 2 to 5 day "intense special" seminar that will have them profitable ( not). Or - they spend $300 on buying DVD's and loads of books that they then think will have them at an intermediate…

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FX Retail Traders - 2016

 % Breakdown  of those who make it and those who don’t

Estimated % of Winners –

Minimum consistent winners who manage to make profits both monthly and yearly  -

3 -5% -  (Independent estimates)

Maximum number of consistent retail winners who make profits monthly ongoing -

22 – 28% -  (Broker / trade estimates )

My own personal view based on other independent statistics and spreadbetting stats –

11 – 15% of all retail FX Traders may be profitable on a consistent basis

Why do so many traders – ie estimates from  72 to 97% of retail traders never make trading profits on a consistent basis ongoing over months – quarters and yearly ?

Out of every 100 new…

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I was going to be writing on another subject for Part three - but I decided to change it after reading some comments on different forums over the weekend and thinking - Why are some traders missing the obvious ?

Here's a few questions to ask yourself -

1. Can you drive a car and do you hold a full driving licence ? If so - was you a good driver after your first week or first 50 miles ? Was you more experienced after say 5 years and 50k+ miles under your belt? Was you a better driver after drivings say 5 different cars in different parts of the country or even abroad ??

2. Have you ever decided to accomplish a new skill - ie skiing or snowboarding - go karting - sailing - ten pin bowling etc ? Have you noticed you started to improve after time ? It might be after a few months or…

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We mentioned in part one about the Forex Market really being a "zero - sum" game - that's after the "trade" - ie Brokers / commercial agents etc have had their "spreads and commissions" off traders participating in the market place.

We also mention the "them and us" - IE commercial institutions / Banks / Governments / Hedge Funds etc - being them and us - being the "poor little relative" - ie the Retail Trader - working for ourselves and trying to make a profitable return from our Capital and our commitment from the amount of effort and time and study we do to try and be consistently profitable.

Now immediately can you all see the "conflict" here - Banks and Hedge Funds need to make large amounts of money simple down to the amount of capital and resources they invest in the currency market…

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Following the Lines of Nature and reflecting upon there can be only O.N.E. with some great audio shared featuring the brilliant Alan Watts:

So just as there are no point instance, in the curve, so there are no events in nature. Nature is a constantly fluctuating pattern, you can only designate particular wiggles in a pattern arbitrarily. You can count a convex formation as one wiggle or a concave formation as one wiggle, then you decide if you call it, if you give the convex…

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Helpful Hints

Share a Trading Tip, Trick, Knowledge or Technique with the Community. Try to avoid just simply posting a link or video and saying this is great. Explain what makes it great or how this was useful. Sometimes things are simply entertaining but still useful and so explain in detail with diagrams, photos or charts. Descriptions with as many details are always interesting to read and so say what could be useful to know here. Community members are welcome to comment, ask questions or add to a post.

"Keep a Record of the Business or Currency Pair Traded. Reasons why the Trade was taken. When was the Exit. How and why the Trade turned out the way it did"

"It's my pleasure to be part of this forum, which is always different than other places & with a friendly environment. Glad to be in this team"

"Yes, the truth requires neither our belief nor understanding. However to harness truth and apply it for our benefit we must at a minimum allow that it is possible".

"We all know we will never be 100% Accurate with 100% win rate over 100's or 1000's of trades - but as long as your winning pips and money - add up to a lot more than your losing pips and money - then "Bingo" you are successful winning FX trader"

"I figured this was a legitimate break, so I went on the hunt for evidence, so here in succession is the list of clues I used to make my decision:

Rejection of market and weekly pivot at ema confluence.

Complete and broken head and shoulders on 1hr time frame.

Broadening formation on daily with test and rejection of 200 day ma

Bull hinge on daily and Renko stochastic.

Positive momentum on 5min, 1hr, 4hr and daily chart"

"Remember that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful" - George E. P. Box

"Sometimes You Win,

Sometimes you Learn".

"Forex Market analysis relies on two types of analysis much like Stock Markets:

Technical Forex Market Analysis views the data on a chart and considers that the News and Data is built into the Price already (economic, political, social, sentimental and psychological). Various tools and indicators will be used by technical traders, for instance MACD, Bollinger Bands, Moving Averages and more.

Fundamental Forex Market Analysis also uses indicators, for instance reports, Gross Domestic Production (GDP), Retail sales, Consumer spending, Industrial Production, Consumer Price Index, Commodities, Economic Calendars, Balance of Trade levels which could identify Trends between other Nations and more."

"Short rapid bursts and quick glimpses of an entry, trigger activated, trail in place and exit strategy and plan already set. Within a blink of an eye, instinctively the buy/sell button is pushed. The hammer falls and clanks decisively, echoing, sparking, like steel upon steel and the trade is executed. A Traders heart beats on with perfect set up, closely aligned with strict parameters, ready to continue the attack or recoil on a wire. Wrap the profit and then stand down, ready for the next hunt"

"When we are talking about sentiment it is very hard to say that this sentiment will prevail another 6, 9, 13 hours. Sentiment is not a constant line. Main trend is bearish, tech picture on daily is bearish, even intraday neutral. Nobody restrict to play long eur short usd position with the target at 1.12 or even 1.1361, this is every traders individual choice as always"

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