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First of all I would like to recommend a great document out there - "DB Guide to Exchange-Rate Determination" which was written by Deutsche Bank in 2002 and is overfilled with FX rate determination, forecasting methods which can be used for all short term, mid-term and long term trading. If you haven't read it, look for it, download to your Kindle and take the time. It is worth. :)

In the doc several FX trading strategies are decsribed with reference to many academical writings. One of them - the Forward-Rate Bias strategy. Its results are stunning for longer term FX trading and its sharpe ratio has beaten the S&P500 two times. As the DB says: "This is the bedrock of Deustche Banks's Forward-Rate Bias trading system".…

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Dead Cat Bounce in Forex Markets (Thats it)

Dead Cat Bounce.

A popular Forex trading term appropriate to many Financial instruments. This well known phrase is said to originate from Wall Street within the financial markets. The "dead cat bounce" means a brief and small recovery in the price action of a declining FX market. The basic idea is that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height. Also applied to Foreign Exchange  Markets where the currency pair encounters a brief resurgence during or following a severe decline. 
A good Forex strategy to counter the Dead Cat Bounce is MTFA.…
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EURUSD Overview and Observation of Forex Price Action in the current Market.

How to identify Live Forex Chart Patterns and Market Direction - Tip: Patterns Tend to be true.

Price Action Data Translation of the Line. The life cycle of this Currency Pair set out in stages as above so below:

M15 The following information is highlighted in the Chart above and in…

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The 6 Most Traded Forex Currencies in the World

Trillions of dollars can be traded on any given day between millions of investors and interested parties which makes the forex market the most liquid market by far and thus securing it to be the largest market place in the World. So, for the beginner and those researching the forex markets for the first time, then it is imperative to gain a firm grasp and familiarize themselves with the more commonly traded currencies and Forex pairs, along with their nicknames as well as the more popular known uses, not just within Forex but also their wider use on the worldwide financial stage. Every currency can be affected by its own specific characteristics and these features will affect its underlying…

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The idea of Trading a single Forex Time Frame can be effective while analysing one chart but there are some alternatives which may reveal a more in-depth and thorough understanding of Forex market analysis for all currency pairs. A wider perspective can be gained from taking advantage of the different and wider angles involved. In essence, entering a Forex trade could be comparable to…

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A guy I knew a few years ago could ride a unicycle whilst juggling 6 oranges . He said it was easy - although he admitted he had been riding unicyles for many years from when he was a teenager.

I tried it in 2 stages - first of all trying to ride a unicycle - that was very difficult and although I did manage to stay on a few times - I could not even juggle 2 oranges at the same time - even though I could juggle 4 or more when I was just focusing and concentrating on just that part and not trying to unicycle.

I tried to do it many times over several weeks - but felt not confident after a few falls - so it beat me 

It reminds…

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Day Trading Forex and the Top 10 Forex Beginners Trading Tips.

The standard use of the term "Day Trading" refers to short term market positions where the trader opens and closes a position within the same day. Rather unfortunately, this term along with the original concept received bad press in the 1990's when it earned the reputation of liquidating many beginners Trading accounts. However, the fact remains that no one whether beginner or seasoned trader, should simply jump into the markets without thoroughly testing their…

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If you send out one sonar ping or drop a rock in a pond the first ripples are fast precise , edges clearly defined sharp in and out. As the ripples or waves expand they become wider slower less precise and mere reflections of the original price action. To explain how those edges that you so casually define, use, move on to the next , like chaff from your harvest are so helpful to me I must share something that may or may not be helpful to you.

As I realize waiting hours for 100 Forex pips is not really that appealing to Traders who glean that from the market in minutes working from the center of the ripples. In the asia…

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At the Start of this Millennium, Currency Trading  / FX / Forex was been sold to potential newbie traders as one of the best ways to make your millions from just a small capital base and a few hours of work a week. We had all heard about all the money Hedge Fund and Bank Traders had been making during the 80's and 90's and now with the availability of the world wide web and access to the markets - it was time to get involved.

All you had to do was spend a few weeks or months learning how to trade - and of course it looks easy - just follow the news and work out whats happening on the charts and then buy and sell different currency pairs and then bank your profits - etc etc

If you were all ready employed and so only had a few hours a week to trade that would not matter as you could become a…

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I am sure many of you have heard the phrase or saying - there is no need to take any courses - everything you need to learn to become a successful FX Trader you can learn for FREE off the Internet.

In a "nutshell" - it could be looked upon as being true - the trouble is though - you are going to end up kissing a lot of frogs before you end up meeting your prince or princess ;-)

Nobody really wants to waste money on their learning journey - but unfortunately it happens to so many newbie traders. They either go to a free seminar and then end up spending $2k or $5K plus on a 2 to 5 day "intense special" seminar that will have them profitable ( not). Or - they spend $300 on buying DVD's and loads of books that they then think will have them at an intermediate…

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FX Retail Traders - 2016

 % Breakdown  of those who make it and those who don’t

Estimated % of Winners –

Minimum consistent winners who manage to make profits both monthly and yearly  -

3 -5% -  (Independent estimates)

Maximum number of consistent retail winners who make profits monthly ongoing -

22 – 28% -  (Broker / trade estimates )

My own personal view based on other independent statistics and spreadbetting stats –

11 – 15% of all retail FX Traders may be profitable on a consistent basis

Why do so many traders – ie estimates from  72 to 97% of retail traders never make trading profits on a consistent basis ongoing over months – quarters and yearly ?

Out of every 100 new…

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I was going to be writing on another subject for Part three - but I decided to change it after reading some comments on different forums over the weekend and thinking - Why are some traders missing the obvious ?

Here's a few questions to ask yourself -

1. Can you drive a car and do you hold a full driving licence ? If so - was you a good driver after your first week or first 50 miles ? Was you more experienced after say 5 years and 50k+ miles under your belt? Was you a better driver after drivings say 5 different cars in different parts of the country or even abroad ??

2. Have you ever decided to accomplish a new skill - ie skiing or snowboarding - go karting - sailing - ten pin bowling etc ? Have you noticed you started to improve after time ? It might be after a few months or…

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We mentioned in part one about the Forex Market really being a "zero - sum" game - that's after the "trade" - ie Brokers / commercial agents etc have had their "spreads and commissions" off traders participating in the market place.

We also mention the "them and us" - IE commercial institutions / Banks / Governments / Hedge Funds etc - being them and us - being the "poor little relative" - ie the Retail Trader - working for ourselves and trying to make a profitable return from our Capital and our commitment from the amount of effort and time and study we do to try and be consistently profitable.

Now immediately can you all see the "conflict" here - Banks and Hedge Funds need to make large amounts of money simple down to the amount of capital and resources they invest in the currency market…

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Following the Lines of Nature and reflecting upon there can be only O.N.E. with some great audio shared featuring the brilliant Alan Watts:

So just as there are no point instance, in the curve, so there are no events in nature. Nature is a constantly fluctuating pattern, you can only designate particular wiggles in a pattern arbitrarily. You can count a convex formation as one wiggle or a concave formation as one wiggle, then you decide if you call it, if you give the convex…

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Choosing the right Forex Broker amongst the Good, the Bad and the plain old fashion Ugly.

Fortunately a trader has more than just a few short moments to make up their minds here. Eliminating the Bad straight off the bat and finding those which promise much but do not seem to deliver when actually needed. Therefore and at the very least, research and due diligence should deliver us from evil and instead, into the hands of a professional high quality efficient and effective service when it counts. The list of brokers is a non-exhaustive one because there are just so many to choose from. So, to begin with, thoughts turn to, which one is right for…

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Forex Tell it Like it is | Part One | The Game

Currency Trading is just really the largest "money game" on the Planet - played by loads of all different people and organisations around the World.

We have really 2 main sections - you could say "them and us" - with us being part of the retail section or community - ie individuals - not working for Banks or Hedge Funds, commercial organisations etc - but instead just for ourselves. "We" only account for approximately 5 to 8% of the total FX market  - whereas just 5 very large banks account for anything between 55 and 70%. 

That leaves something like 22 to 30+% of the market being made up of loads of commercial businesses and even governments etc - not just Hedge Funds or small Banks - but even car manufacturers and massive international global businesses who are trading in anything up to 200+ countries…

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This analysis was previously posted by the Forexmospherians for seven consecutive years as "JBCB for 13 Currency Pairs" at FXstreet/ Forexstreet but will only be posted on this site with the addition of further pairs which now totals 31 Forex Pairs.

ForeXmospherian Currency Kraken | 31 Currency Pairs | Multiple Time Frames | Market…

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The Trader | Written By Sir Gissachance

The Trader - Written By Sir Gissachance

The methodology and style of Forex Intraday Trading could be suggested and likened to the Hungry Spider with tight trading parameters within minor time frames, relentlessly searching to turn a quick pip profit. Focused and locking on, capturing then dispatching their prey by closing out with another profitable session. Naturally, some Forex trades can end Negatively, some Break Even but overall Positive targets must be achieved and upheld throughout. The Forex scalper's insatiable dietary…

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There could be valid grounds to suggested that all Trading or investing is based upon The Greater Fool Theory (T.G.F.T.) which could perhaps, have been scribed on a Stone or Clay Tablet in a far off distant Galaxy or here in the past and just maybe found, hidden but written in the S.T.A.R.'s or even written inside an Ancient Scroll somewhere. Things in life, do have the habit of re-orbiting, in Time, so with this in mind would also suggest this post, for some perhaps, is once again being read from a Tablet but not the so ancient ones, no, more so, the branded and logo digital type we see Traded all around us. T.G.F.T. has seemingly reoccurred almost since time…

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Helpful Hints

Share a Trading Tip, Trick, Knowledge or Technique with the Community. Try to avoid just simply posting a link or video and saying this is great. Explain what makes it great or how this was useful. Sometimes things are simply entertaining but still useful and so explain in detail with diagrams, photos or charts. Descriptions with as many details are always interesting to read and so say what could be useful to know here. Community members are welcome to comment, ask questions or add to a post.

"Keep a Record of the Business or Currency Pair Traded. Reasons why the Trade was taken. When was the Exit. How and why the Trade turned out the way it did"

"It's my pleasure to be part of this forum, which is always different than other places & with a friendly environment. Glad to be in this team"

"Yes, the truth requires neither our belief nor understanding. However to harness truth and apply it for our benefit we must at a minimum allow that it is possible".

"We all know we will never be 100% Accurate with 100% win rate over 100's or 1000's of trades - but as long as your winning pips and money - add up to a lot more than your losing pips and money - then "Bingo" you are successful winning FX trader"

"I figured this was a legitimate break, so I went on the hunt for evidence, so here in succession is the list of clues I used to make my decision:

Rejection of market and weekly pivot at ema confluence.

Complete and broken head and shoulders on 1hr time frame.

Broadening formation on daily with test and rejection of 200 day ma

Bull hinge on daily and Renko stochastic.

Positive momentum on 5min, 1hr, 4hr and daily chart"

"Remember that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful" - George E. P. Box

"Sometimes You Win,

Sometimes you Learn".

"Forex Market analysis relies on two types of analysis much like Stock Markets:

Technical Forex Market Analysis views the data on a chart and considers that the News and Data is built into the Price already (economic, political, social, sentimental and psychological). Various tools and indicators will be used by technical traders, for instance MACD, Bollinger Bands, Moving Averages and more.

Fundamental Forex Market Analysis also uses indicators, for instance reports, Gross Domestic Production (GDP), Retail sales, Consumer spending, Industrial Production, Consumer Price Index, Commodities, Economic Calendars, Balance of Trade levels which could identify Trends between other Nations and more."

"Short rapid bursts and quick glimpses of an entry, trigger activated, trail in place and exit strategy and plan already set. Within a blink of an eye, instinctively the buy/sell button is pushed. The hammer falls and clanks decisively, echoing, sparking, like steel upon steel and the trade is executed. A Traders heart beats on with perfect set up, closely aligned with strict parameters, ready to continue the attack or recoil on a wire. Wrap the profit and then stand down, ready for the next hunt"

"When we are talking about sentiment it is very hard to say that this sentiment will prevail another 6, 9, 13 hours. Sentiment is not a constant line. Main trend is bearish, tech picture on daily is bearish, even intraday neutral. Nobody restrict to play long eur short usd position with the target at 1.12 or even 1.1361, this is every traders individual choice as always"