We have witness a really strong bull market for EURUSD so far this year. So in my view, the market has just reached the 1st half of a bigger move upwards. The market currently refused 1.2 with Head and Shoulders chart pattern, so it is more than likely that some shorting EURUSD is ahead, but caution is required as all market sentiment can revert back to the bull market at anytime.
A strong argument for EURUSD long as described in my comments to Pixta's photo post is also supported from the idea that Trump with Mnuchin want to see weaker USD, because of the US based companies' competitiveness. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said moments ago on CNBC that "having a weaker dollar is somewhat better for trade".
In this context Trump said to Germany in May: "If you want to build cars in the world, then I wish you all the best. You can build cars for the United States, but for every car that comes to the USA, you will pay 35 percent tax". Angela Merkel replied something like: "Our cars are higher quality, you should create better cars if you want to compete with German ones".
However, exactly here Mr. President Trump hit the nail on head. A problem which is not discussed much in the European Union, it is - Germany enjoys the benefits of highly undervalued currency. In part at least, Germany gain a huge competitive advantage not only over eurozone countries, but also the rest of countries in the world including the United States of America. Other countries like Italy, Spain, France and more suffer under the Euro and can't become more competitive due mainly to the overvalued currency relative to their economy within on the global market stage, but the latter is a completely different discussion and maybe worth posting on another occasion.
Furthermore we have some estimates based upon PPP by IMF, which concludes the right valuation of Euro to USD. In 2014 according to IMF, Euro was 5-15% undervalued for Germany. In 2016, as Euro continued depreciating, it was 15-25%. By research from World Economics conducted in 2017 it has been something around 17% undervaluation.
And now, where is the point? What Trump wanted to do with the tax, was to equalize competitiveness betwen US car producers and the German car producers. When this tax did not meet with any success in Germany and the only reply was in humour from the German politicians. The key politics became, as mentioned above and what Mnuchin believe in, to have a weaker currency. The investors know this and the US deficit of Current Account Balance will make it even easier for them to take a ride on the dollar weakness.
So the fair values of EURUSD exchange rate according to institutional estimates are on picture below, including Trump's 35% tax. Anyway I would decrease it to 20%, as there are also tax costs for the government etc etc.
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Synchronicity in philosophy is regarded as experiencing two or more events that are causally unrelated but are experienced as occurring together in a meaningful manner. It was first described by Carl Jung in the 1920s. There are various definitions and interpretations of the theory and in places opposed or dismissed but as usual it is best to let the reader decide if and when the theory is applicable or not, naturally based upon their own experiences and lines of thought.
For me at least, Synchronicity does occur if a person was to learn to look for it and directly linking to Forex, the specifics and the importance of targeting this in Price action pattern trading for the Foreign Exchange Markets is a given, i.e A reversal followed by another reversal and a reversal followed by a continue will alter the directional flow.
The suggestion could also be; to not only find synchronicity in the analysis of Time Frames but to make sure this forms a major part of the Trading Methodology. Whether a trader is lacking in syncing time frames, has limited or even no Synchronicity at all, this will be detrimental to the trading account. For example, certain types of events or market movements like to cluster together at particular times but the problem lies within the individual's own timing and thinking.
Far too often, incorrect interpretation of Price Action in the markets and lack of experience in recognising patterns and when to trade or not trade. This fact actually passes unnoticed and can be dismissed but not at Forexmospherians.com where it is recognised as a vital part of knowing how to Trade FX successfully. Any Traders finding themselves in the market at the wrong time know this results in mistakes and inappropriate trades causing losses.
Good trading days will naturally follow when the Trading syncing and methodology will work but more over, will work better when the individual thoroughly understands and starts using synchronised Multiple Time frame analysis to map, trigger and manage the trade. Fair to say, when the trader has not learned to watch for these patterns or coincidences and make them meaningful in relationship to Trading set ups, these will be lost opportunities which will hamper a Traders progress until they are fully resolved.
Below is an example of Synchronicity in the current Forex Markets demonstrated by the currency pair GBPAUD and the current Bull Market conditions.
The Trader may decide the Daily GBPAUD has Patterned for a treble bottom but at the very least Horizontal support and resistance has been identified.
GBPAUD 3 Hour Synced to the Daily Chart could identify horizontal resistance along with rising support.
3 Hour Time Frame under the spotlight could be seen as 123B followed by Bull Flag with Horizontal Support breaking long in the direction of the 3B. Again, followed by an MC with a mind to find an entry in the synchronised move to long. Final patterns in the current conditions could be a rising channel break long and followed again by an MC suggesting hold the trade.
The 1 Hour Time Frame could be seen by the Trader as a rising support, with the Price Action Corkscrewing its way to continue the long. In the final stages of this chart, the idea of seeing an Inverted Head and shoulders @1.7100, followed again by a bull flag and an MC , giving rise to think of an entry Long. Needless to say, everything Synced to the Time Frames above.
GBPAUD synced M5 Time Frame could perhaps give rise to the Trading idea of identifying an Inverted H/S @ circa 1.7200 followed by a minor continue and entry Trade long.
GBPAUD 1 minute synced as above for some traders, so below; Inverted followed by MC also known as an Ascending Triangle break long with entry identified using the Synchronicity of the aforementioned Time Frames and Forex Market Technical Analysis.
Forex Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns, Support and Resistance, Multiple Time Frame Analysis.
EURUSD Daily and M15 Foreign Exchange Charts
EURUSD break long Daily Rising Wedge Pattern - Support 123b 1.0400, plus support 123b plus support 123b, soon after patterns for flat line = NSC in minor TF and breaks long again. Looking for scalp entry long in the minor frames and found through horizontal resistance on daily along with M15 entry pattern.
Current PA breaks the Daily wedge to indicate long.
The Flat line mentioned above was NSC in M15 TF, soon after re-patterns for Symm Triangle, Broke Long and entry. Current hold 57 pips long. Stop Loss @ISSL
Current Price Action in the Minor Frames: M1 = Bear, 5 Sec = Bear
I entered a trade in the Aussie Kiwi last night based on a 5 sec scalp.(I will add lower time frames to this post) The reason for the trade is as follows:
We double topped within this NTZ on the 13 April just below 1.0850 and had 4 attempts to push past the lower bound of the double top (market with pink line on 1 hour chart).
I realised we had a AuD red news event which had the possibility to fuel the move I had already entered.
Entry was taken via 5 sec Head and Shoulders EPR at the previous lower bound of the 1 hour double top (pink line). A sharp move down after the H&S took out some key short term levels on the 1min and 5min, this gave me my entry as shown with the downwards arrow.
Attached are 3 hour, 1 hour, 5 min and 1 min charts. (I wanted to attach the 5 sec chart but for some reason I can't scroll back enough to screen shot). Currently around the 90 pip area.
Currently long this pair from earlier on in the day. The 2 white arrows at the double top area had bears sighted with EPR. I Was looking for a push down past the yellow line in the sand and a failure of the triangle support.
This idea was scrapped and the pair was back on the shelve for a while until I had a clear view. Once we broke out again and retested the 2 arrows price did not reverse hard and make a charge for the last support area. We formed a bull flag, once the EPR of the flag came in my thought we're a test higher and a run of the stops above the white arrows. I had a break out order Buy Stop in place for this move.
AUDJPY shorted this Forex currency pair twice @85.27 on 31st April and @83.56 6th April and holding.
Strategy to trade with the H1 Market Trend. Sell on break of swing.
Market Analysis is most Aussie pairs are in a down trend and holding both trades at 305 pips and 134 pips.
Thanks to Sir Gissachance who gave the heads up to short Aussie pairs in his last video. Anyone who pays attention to the detail in these secret Forex coded videos will know what to look for once studied.
Forex Live Technical Analysis for this EURCAD currency pair:
M30 Timeframe and a Rising Market = Bull Market
123B = Support Identified = Bulls in the Market
Ascending Triangle Break = Continuation of Bull Market
Bull Flag Break in favour of the Bulls = Continuation
Bull Flag Break in favour of the Bulls = Continuation
Deep Continue = Bulls still in the Market
123T = Reversal Sighted = Bears in the Market
Median Break = Bears Continue and the entry here correlated from a minor timeframe
M5 Breaks with a minor 123T at resistance but soon found support with a 123B pattern, this reversal long ran into declining resistance and again held with another 123T which allowed another entry short.
Long (sim) EurAus. Longer term Inv H&S at the low. A larger H&S highlighted in the blue triangle will of brought shorts into the market and stops placed at the traditional right shoulder or above the head. With the failure of this pattern in the triangle (stops getting run) allowed for a decent push higher and good ground covered by the longs.
Got long (sim) after seeing a very aggressive bounce back after breaking the previous swing lows. Classic Inv H&S entry on the break of the neck line. For me if we can breach 138.94 area and hold, this could be a fantastic bear trap on our hands.
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